Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Coca Cola decides to alter the formula of its oldest & most popular product.How might probability theory be involved in such a decision.

If Coca Cola wants to alter the formula of one of its oldest and most popular products,then it is surely going into a decision making process.By doing this,Coca Cola would either change the colour or the flavour of the drink or both.When in this way Coca Cola is considering launching a new flavour on the market,the company needs to do a market research,the company needs to prepare a questionnaire and conduct a market survey.The involvement of the probability theory comes with the number of respondents giving positive responses or negative responses in terms of the way Coca Cola has determined to change the flavour.The financial outcome of the change should be calculated that is if the change is successful then the company will earn extra profits but if it is not the company stands to lose much more because it will spend something in its R&D(Research & Development) department.Suppose a response resulted in getting 75 positive outcomes out of every 100 people questioned then according to the theory of probality it is quite good and the company can set to launch the product.Now if we translate the response into the probability statement of getting successful,which is 75/100 or 3/4 or 0.75 (since probability is expressed either in fraction or decimal).There are many other factors which should also be taken into account while launching any new or upgraded product.

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